Expected value: the number behind every decision
Expected value (EV) is the average result of a decision if you made it thousands of times. Hitting, standing, doubling and splitting each have an EV against every dealer up-card, and basic strategy is simply the move with the highest EV in each spot.
- House edge: the share of each bet the casino keeps over the long run, with perfect play.
- Hard hand: no ace, or an ace that can only count as 1.
- Soft hand: an ace counted as 11, so one more card cannot bust you.
- Penetration: how much of the shoe is dealt before the reshuffle.
The rules that make the edge
The dealer's fixed rule creates the casino's advantage: you act first, and if you bust you lose even when the dealer busts afterwards. Everything else is a rule the table can set in your favour or against you.
| Rule | Better for you | Cost when it goes the other way |
|---|---|---|
| Natural payout | 3:2 | 6:5 adds about 1.39% |
| Dealer on soft 17 | Stands (S17) | Hitting (H17) adds about 0.2% |
| Double after split | Allowed | Not allowed adds about 0.14% |
| Late surrender | Offered | None adds about 0.08% |
| Decks in the shoe | Fewer | Eight decks add about 0.5% against one |
A worked number: on Rs 1,000 per hand for 100 hands, a 6:5 payout costs about Rs 1,390 more than a 3:2 table with the same rules. No playing skill wins that back.
Reading the chart
A basic strategy chart puts your total down the side and the dealer's up-card across the top. The few lines below cover most of the money; the full chart is in our blackjack basic strategy guide.
- Hard 12 to 16: stand against a dealer 2 to 6, hit against 7 to ace.
- Hard 11: double against everything except, on some tables, an ace.
- Always split aces and eights; never split tens or fives.
- Soft 18: stand against 2, 7 and 8, double against 3 to 6 where allowed, hit against 9, 10 and ace.
Card counting, and where it does not work
The Hi-Lo count gives +1 to cards 2 to 6, 0 to 7 to 9 and −1 to tens and aces. Divide the running count by the decks left to get the true count; a high true count means more tens and aces remain, which helps the player.
Online it rarely helps. RNG blackjack reshuffles after every hand, and most live tables cut the shoe early, so the count never builds. Counting is not illegal, but a casino can close the table to you.
A practice drill
- Use a chart that matches the table's exact rules: decks, S17 or H17, double after split.
- Drill hard totals 12 to 16 first, then doubles, then pairs, then soft hands.
- Play 100 free hands in a trainer or demo mode and count your mistakes.
- Move to real stakes only when you make fewer than one error in 100 hands.
Common mistakes and what they cost
- Standing on hard 16 against a 7 or higher.
- Not splitting eights: 16 is the worst total in the game.
- Taking insurance: it pays 2:1 but only wins about 31% of the time.
- Sitting at a 6:5 table because it looks the same as a 3:2 one.